As the Washington Commanders prepare to kick off the Josh Harris era on Sunday at home against the Arizona Cardinals, there’s been plenty of talk about the team’s ceiling and floor, or the best- and worst-case scenarios in Coach Ron Rivera’s fourth year at the helm. If the Commanders don’t manage to beat the lowly Cardinals in front of a sold-out crowd in Week 1, there’s a chance the metaphorical floor will drop out of from under them and form a sinkhole large enough to swallow FedEx Field. (On the bright side, this might expedite ownership’s search for a new stadium.)
“My ceiling for the team is 10 wins,” former Washington cornerback Shawn Springs said Tuesday during an interview with the Junkies on 106.7 the Fan. “The floor, they could possibly go 4-13. At some point, if it starts to look like it’s not going in the right direction, let’s start tanking games and go after [USC quarterback] Caleb Williams.”
Washington, which has won seven, seven and eight games in Rivera’s first three seasons, is projected to finish among the NFL’s middle class once again. The Commanders aren’t terrible enough to be in the running for the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft, but it would be a surprise if they qualified for the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
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After simulating the Commanders’ season 1,000 times with point spreads available as of Wednesday, The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg projects the team’s floor as three wins and its ceiling as 11 wins. Washington, which is 24th in Mark Maske’s preseason power rankings, is most likely to win between seven and 10 games, according to the simulation. The franchise hasn’t won at least 10 games since 2012.
Here’s a look at how others expect the Commanders to fare this season:
ESPN’s Football Power Index metric gives the Commanders a 5 percent chance to win the NFC East and an 18 percent chance to make the playoffs. Seth Walder boldly predicts that Jacoby Brissett will replace Sam Howell at quarterback by Week 7. “I’m worried about Howell’s high sack rates and sack-to-pressure rates in college and how that pairs with a weak Commanders interior offensive line,” he writes. John Keim says Washington’s ceiling is 10 wins, and its floor is five wins.
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Jarrett Bell is the only one of USA Today’s seven NFL writers who predicts Washington will make the playoffs. Bell tabs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy as the assistant coach of the year.
Peter King has the Eagles winning the NFC East, the Cowboys claiming a wild-card spot and Washington home for the playoffs.
None of PFT’s five analysts predicts Washington will make the postseason.
The MMQB’s staff of 10 writers and editors all agree: Washington is not a playoff team. Michael Rosenberg offers the following extra spicy prediction: “Ron Rivera will be the early-season front-runner for Coach of the Year … and then he will be the first head coach to get fired.” Andrew Brandt picks Commanders cornerback Emmanuel Forbes as his defensive rookie of the year.
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John Breech predicts the Commanders will finish last in the division at 7-10. Washington opens the year 13th in Pete Prisco’s preseason power rankings. Prisco predicts Howell will be “better than many expect” and the Commanders will make the playoffs. Jeff Kerr says Washington’s ceiling is 10 wins, and its floor is seven wins.
The Athletic’s model projects 7.5 wins for the Commanders. In an anonymous poll of NFL decision-makers, four out of 20 respondents picked the Commanders among their three teams that will surprise people in a good way. The Commanders are 25th in Bo Wulf’s preseason power rankings.
Five of NFL.com’s 34 analysts pick Washington to claim a wild-card spot. Forbes received one vote for defensive rookie of the year and Rivera received one vote for coach of the year. Analytics expert Cynthia Frelund projects 6.6 wins for the Commanders, with a ceiling of 9.4 and a floor of 5.2.
The Commanders aren’t mentioned in the staff’s playoff and awards predictions, which featured picks from eight reporters.
Vinnie Iyer predicts Washington finishes 4-13. “The Commanders have some promise with Sam Howell and defensive pieces, but they are stuck in the wrong division,” he writes.
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